David Deming, Faculty Co-director of the Project on Workforce, is an economist and professor at the Harvard Kennedy School and the Harvard Graduate School of Education. He currently serves as Faculty Dean at HKS, and is also a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, Principal Investigator at the Harvard Skills Lab, and author of the blog Forked Lightning.
Deming's research focuses on higher education, economic inequality, the future of the labor market, as well as teamwork, leadership, and decision-making skills. He is a Principal Investigator (along with Raj Chetty and John Friedman) at the CLIMB Initiative, an organization that seeks to study and improve the role of higher education in social mobility.
In 2022 David Deming won the Sherwin Rosen Prize for outstanding contributions to Labor Economics. In 2018 he was awarded the David N. Kershaw Prize for distinguished contributions to the field of public policy and management under the age of 40. He served as a Coeditor of the AEJ: Applied from 2018 to 2021. He also writes occasional columns for the New York Times.
CONTENTS
Selected Projects
The Harvard Skills Lab — Measuring higher-order skills
The Harvard Skills Lab creates new, performance-based, scalable measurement tools for higher-order skills. We contribute to the basic science of human potential by defining and measuring concepts like teamwork, leadership and decision-making skills, with a focus on the changing demands of the labor market.
Forked Lightning — Substack Blog on Education and Workforce
A newly launched Substack newsletter by Faculty Co-Director David Deming that provides in-depth coverage and insightful commentary on topics related to education, economic trends, and the evolving landscape of the workforce. Forked Lightning aims to spark meaningful conversations about the forces shaping the workforce of tomorrow.
The College-to-Jobs Playbook — Exploring the intersection of higher education and the workforce
This playbook provides a framework to help college better deliver on the American Dream by creating a coherent, comprehensive taxonomy of the landscape of college-to-jobs programs and policies through a review of the existing academic research according to a set of common criteria. With a focus on public two-year and four-year colleges, Minority Serving Institutions, and Historically Black Colleges and Universities, it identifies 13 “interventions” within the college ecosystem that could be used to ease the transition into good jobs in the workforce.
Selected Research
The ABC’s of Who Benefits from Working with AI: Ability, Beliefs, and Calibration | National Bureau of Economic Research
A controlled experiment shows that both ability and belief calibration impact the benefits of working with AI. AI enhances performance more for individuals with lower baseline ability, but its value increases further for those with accurate self-assessments. People who recognize their own low ability benefit from AI assistance.
The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI | The Harvard Project on Workforce
An ongoing study on generative AI usage in the U.S. found that 39.4% of adults aged 18-64 use the technology, with 28% of workers incorporating it into their jobs. Generative AI’s adoption rate surpasses that of previous transformative technologies like PCs and the internet. It is being utilized across various roles, with notable usage in writing, administrative tasks, and coding. The study estimates that generative AI currently supports up to 3.5% of U.S. work hours, and suggests it could boost productivity, though further research is needed to assess its broader economic impact.
Navigating Public Job Training | The Harvard Project on Workforce
Research reviews over 75,000 U.S. job training programs funded by WIOA, revealing key challenges. Many programs lead to low-paying jobs, lack clear performance data, and receive minimal funding. Despite helping 220,000 people annually, the system is hard to navigate and falls short of its goals to boost economic mobility. The report suggests improving technology, career guidance, and funding to create better training opportunities and ensure public dollars support high-quality programs that prepare workers for in demand jobs.
Team Players: How Social Skills Improve Team Performance | Econometrica
This study introduces a method to measure individual contributions to team success by analyzing performance in randomly assigned teams. It identifies “team players” as individuals that consistently help teams exceed expected outcomes. These team players excel in social intelligence but show no sign of significant differences in IQ, personality, education, or gender. The research highlights the importance of social skills in teamwork, showing their impact on performance rivals that of IQ.
Skills and Human Capital in the Labor Market | National Bureau of Economic Research
This working paper looks at the economics of human skills, focusing on higher-level abilities like social and decision-making skills. It reviews research on how human capital impacts earnings both at the individual and societal level. The paper highlights two main problems: human capital is often measured only by education and test scores, and it is treated as simply boosting worker productivity.
How Do You Find a Good Manager? | National Bureau of Economic Research
This paper introduces a new way to measure how much managers impact team performance. It involves randomly assigning managers to different teams while accounting for individual skills. The study finds that good managers can significantly boost team performance. The research highlights that managers’ success is linked to their decision-making ability and intelligence, not their age, gender, or ethnicity. Focusing on skills rather than demographics when choosing managers can improve productivity.
The growing importance of social skills in the labor market | The Quarterly Journal of Economics
Labor market increasingly values social skills; jobs requiring high social interaction grew by 12%, while math-intensive roles declined by 3.3% (1980-2012). Strong growth in employment and wages for jobs needing both math and social skills. Model suggests social skills reduce coordination costs, enhancing efficiency. Data show greater returns to social skills in the 2000s compared to the mid-1980s and 1990s.
Diversifying society’s leaders? The causal effects of admission to highly selective private colleges | National Bureau of Economic Research
Highly selective colleges favor high-income students. Adjusting admissions policies could diversify future leaders. Data suggests Ivy-Plus attendance boosts elite career prospects but exacerbates income inequality.
Early childhood intervention and life-cycle skill development: Evidence from Head Start | American Economic Journal: Applied Economics
Research on Head Start's benefits: participants gain 0.23 SD in young adult outcomes, partially closing the income gap. Despite a test score fadeout, the impacts prove to be significant.
Skill requirements across firms and labor markets: Evidence from job postings for professionals | Journal of Labor Economics
Study examines skill demands across firms, job ads. 10 general skills vary widely, correlate with pay, firm performance. Cognitive, social skills complement each other, enhance outcomes. Skills crucial beyond traditional labor market data.
Selected Media
You want to be boss. You probably won’t be good at it | The Harvard Gazette
A recent study by David Deming reveals two key predictors of effective management: IQ and economic decision-making skills. Unlike traits like age, personality, or experience, these measures directly relate to the tasks managers face, such as resource allocation and team motivation. Surprisingly, those eager to lead often underperform due to overconfidence. The study emphasizes a scientific approach to selecting managers and suggests testing management skills in real scenarios.
The Worst Way to Do College Admissions | The Atlantic
Making standardized test scores optional has unintentionally disadvantaged the very students it aimed to help. Critics argue the SAT and ACT favor wealthy applicants, but data suggest removing these tests exacerbates biases in college admissions. Wealthier students benefit from better schools, extracurriculars, and costly college coaching, while underprivileged students often lack similar opportunities. Standardized test scores however provide a chance for disadvantaged students to showcase their potential.
The Science of Leadership with Harvard Professor David Deming: Why the Best Leaders May Not Be Who You Think | Future Ready Leadership Podcast with Jacob Morgan
David Deming’s research shows that overconfidence in leaders often leads to poor decision making and emotional intelligence is crucial for understanding team dynamics. Effective leaders excel in resource allocation and strategic delegation, maximizing team strengths. Deming urges organizations to prioritize EQ and decision making over ambition.
Study of Elite College Admissions Data Suggests Being Very Rich Is Its Own Qualification | The New York Times
Study reveals elite colleges favor wealthy applicants, even with similar test scores. For the same SAT/ACT scores, top 1% students 34% likelier to be admitted; top 0.1% more than twice as likely. Data exposes how elite colleges perpetuate wealth transfer, sparking calls for admission process reforms. Colleges claim urgency in diversifying income backgrounds since the study's 2015 end date.
Harvard’s Project on Workforce: Charting college’s employment pathways | Managing the Future of Work Podcast
David Deming and Bill Kerr of Harvard Business School discuss bridging college-to-career transition, emphasizing need for better integration of work-based learning. Data-driven approach via College-to-Jobs initiative aims to inform stakeholders for more effective pathways, highlighting value of internships and employer collaboration.
The College Backlash Is Going Too Far | The Atlantic
Despite skepticism, college still offers significant economic benefits. Research shows college graduates earn much more on average, although rising student debt challenges this. The college wealth premium, accounting for costs, is decreasing for recent cohorts, but history suggests earnings will grow. Though short-term debt may be a deterrent, long-term gains justify investment, especially for low- and middle-income students. Investing in workforce development and making college more affordable are crucial for economic mobility.
The Misguided War on the SAT | The New York Times
The article discusses the shift towards test-optional policies among selective colleges, prompted initially by the COVID-19 pandemic, but maintained thereafter. While lauded as a move towards equity, others argue that standardized test scores offer valuable predictive information about college success, especially for identifying lower-income students and underrepresented minorities with significant potential. Research indicates that test scores are often more reliable predictors than high school grades. Despite concerns about bias and inequity, standardized tests can help create diverse classes of highly talented students when used alongside other factors such as overcoming adversity in the admissions process. Critics worry that the abandonment of standardized tests may exacerbate biases in admissions and undermine efforts to promote excellence and diversity. The article suggests that the polarization of opinions on standardized testing reflects broader ideological divides in American society and urges a return to evidence-based decision-making.
Selected Articles
Four Facts about Human Capital | Journal of Economic Perspectives
In this paper, David Deming synthesizes economists' findings on human capital since Becker (1962). It highlights four key points: human capital explains earnings variations, offers high returns in youth, known methods exist for basic skills, yet technology complicates advanced skill acquisition. Though investing in education yields results, understanding the link between skills and earnings remains incomplete.
Ivy-Plus colleges are a gateway to the elite | Forked Lightning
The article examines the benefits of attending Ivy-Plus colleges, comparing various research findings. While some studies suggest limited impact on average earnings, a new study using waitlist data reveals significant advantages, including higher top earnings and elite graduate school attendance. The waitlist design provides a unique perspective, indicating that expanding class size could benefit more students without compromising quality.
Online Learning Should Return to a Supporting Role | The New York Times
The article discusses doubts about a permanent shift to online learning. While online lectures offer flexibility, in-person education remains valuable for personalized interactions. Concerns arise over affordability and quality differentiation in on-campus learning, but Deming argues for broader access to quality on-campus education and warns against solely relying on online learning for cost reduction, emphasizing the importance of personal connections in education.
Do colleges have a free speech problem? | Forked Lightning
The article discusses the recent release of FIRE's College Free Speech rankings, which placed Harvard at the bottom due to concerns about free expression on campus. Despite some methodological criticisms, survey results reveal Harvard's poor performance on various measures of free expression. Possible reasons include university policies, ideological homogeneity, and misperceptions of peers' views. Deming suggests addressing these issues to foster more open dialogue on campus and cites research showing that correcting misperceptions can lead to behavior change, suggesting practical ways to encourage open discussion.